Joe Burrow Odds to Win NFL MVP

It didn’t take long for Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow to make his mark in the NFL.

After a mediocre rookie campaign that was cut short to 10 games due to a torn ACL, the Cincy signal caller bounced back like no other the following year, earning Comeback Player of the Year honors and leading his team to the Super Bowl as a major longshot.

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Despite failing to deliver a Lombardi Trophy to Cincinnati, the future is still bright for Joey Franchise. He’s emerged as one of the league’s top quarterbacks after two pro seasons and has a solid chance to demonstrate his greatness in the next NFL MVP race. The competition is fierce, as it always is, but the kid seems to have the goods to take home the glory.

Joe Burrow Odds to Win NFL MVP vs. the Field

Burrow – priced at +1200 on top sports betting apps –  is currently listed with the sixth shortest odds to capture the league’s most prestigious individual award. But while he may be the NFL’s next top gun, there are several fellow elite skin slingers who pose a big threat.

2022 NFL MVP OddsDraftKingsFanDuelBetMGM
Josh Allen, BUF+700+700+700
Tom Brady, TB+800+800+800
Patrick Mahomes, KC+900+800+800
Justin Herbert, LAC+1000+900+900
Aaron Rodgers, GB+1000+1000+900
Joe Burrow, CIN+1200+1200+1200

Buffalo Bills’ All-Pro quarterback Josh Allen (+700) tops all MVP odds boards, followed by the ageless Tom Brady (+800) and 2018 MVP Patrick Mahomes (+800 to +900). Pro Bowler Justin Herbert and reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers – both priced between +900 and +1000 – round out the top five. Then enters Burrow with the sixth shortest odds.

As you can see, outdueling the league’s most talented ‘skin slingers won’t be easy pickings. So why exactly is Burrow listed so high, and what’s driving his MVP case?

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Young Gun Has Tools to Win MVP

Burrow presents outstanding value at his +1200 price. He has the stats, the winning gene, and the requisite teammates to let the world know that he has next. The Bengals quarterback led the league in completion percentage (70.4%) and yards per attempt (8.9) and finished second in passer rating (108.3) and sixth in passing yards (4,611) in 2021.

The only two points that his case doesn’t have, but most of his fellow top candidates have, are veteran experience and previous MVP titles. To address the former, his 2021 regular-season performance and Super Bowl run show why his short time in the league shouldn’t worry Burrow backers. As for the latter, it’s a brand new season where emerging stars get to showcase they’re high caliber for the first time, and voters often like to see a new, young face win the award.

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NFL MVP Betting Trends

Like with any accolade, knowing the history of the award can act as a guide to picking the correct eventual winner. Let’s see if Burrow has the same makeup as previous winners.

The three biggest factors that generally determine the NFL MVP are position, team wins, and passing touchdowns. Since 2001, there have been only three non-QBs to win the award – zero in the past nine seasons. Don’t be that bettor who gets mesmerized by the favorable odds associated with skill players and goes completely against the grain.

Since 2003, only one MVP-winning quarterback was on a team that won fewer than 12 games — Matt Ryan (11 wins, 2016). To take it one step further, 12 of the past 13 winners racked up at least 13 wins.

The statistical precedent indicates that MVPs are very proficient at throwing for six points. 11 of the past 12 winners finished either first (five times), second (three times), third (two times), or fourth (once) in passing touchdowns.

So how does Burrow fare against history? Well, to start, he is a quarterback, which doesn’t exactly eliminate many candidates from the race, but it’s not nothing.

The Bengals won 10 contests last season, but the team should take a step forward in 2022 with a much-improved offensive line and with skill players reaching their potential. Oddsmakers have tagged Cincinnati with a 9.5- to 10-win total, which means that Burrow will have to steal two to three extra wins in order to reach the necessary 12-plus win benchmark.

The second-year quarterback threw for 34 touchdowns last season, which was good enough for the eighth most in the league, but not good enough if he wants to win the award next season. He’ll have to add a few more touchdowns to his yearly total if he wants to garner voters’ attention.

AP Photo/Jeff Dean

About the Author

Cyrus Eshaghoff

Sports Betting Writer